【Petroleum Coke】Operating Rate Falls to 56.93%! Supply Tightening Signals Strengthen Behind...

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【Petroleum Coke】Operating Rate Falls to 56.93%! Supply Tightening Signals Strengthen Behind May Production Decline

Introduction

The tightening trend on the supply side of China's petroleum coke market became more evident in May. Affected by concentrated refinery maintenance, insufficient crude oil supply at some enterprises, and reduced processing rates, the operating rate of delayed coking units continued to decline, resulting in lower petroleum coke production. As maintenance activities expanded, expectations of tighter market supply gradually strengthened, enhancing the supportive effect of supply fundamentals on prices. Entering June, the pace of unit shutdowns and restarts will become a key factor influencing petroleum coke market performance.

I. Analysis of China's Delayed Coking Unit Operations

In May, the overall operating load of domestic delayed coking units declined, with industry operating rates showing a gradual downward trend. During the month, a total of 10 delayed coking units were shut down for maintenance, involving approximately 9.9 million tonnes per year of processing capacity. Meanwhile, some refineries proactively reduced processing rates due to insufficient crude oil supply, further limiting market output.

Although four units resumed operations during the month, the scale of newly added maintenance exceeded that of restarted units by a considerable margin. Maintenance-related production losses increased significantly month-on-month, leading to a continued decline in overall industry capacity utilization.

II. Analysis of China's Petroleum Coke Production in May 2026

According to the data, China's petroleum coke production in May 2026 was approximately 2.46 million tonnes, down 4,700 tonnes year-on-year, representing a decrease of 0.19%, and down 33,700 tonnes month-on-month, representing a decline of 1.35%.

Although the year-on-year decrease was relatively limited, the month-on-month decline was more pronounced, reflecting the substantial impact of increased refinery maintenance and lower operating rates on market supply. As several large refineries entered maintenance cycles, domestic petroleum coke production continued to face downward pressure.

III. Analysis of China's Petroleum Coke Operating Rate in May 2026

In May 2026, the average operating rate of China's delayed coking units fell to 56.93%, remaining at a relatively low level compared with recent periods.

The decline in operating rates was mainly driven by three factors:

1. Expanded refinery maintenance activities, with a notable increase in the number of units shut down during the month;

2. Tight crude oil supply, prompting some refineries to reduce processing rates proactively;

3. Pressure on delayed coking profitability, which weakened production incentives among enterprises.

Although some units resumed operations, the pace of recovery remained slower than the increase in maintenance activities, resulting in continued pressure on industry operating rates.

IV. Market Outlook

Entering June, some maintenance units are expected to remain offline, making a significant increase in petroleum coke supply unlikely in the short term. At the same time, port inventories continue to decline, while imported petroleum coke arrivals are expected to decrease, suggesting that the supply-tightening logic is likely to persist.

Against the backdrop of demand remaining primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, market attention is gradually shifting from high inventory levels toward low operating rates and declining production trends. If the restart progress of maintenance units falls short of expectations, the supportive effect of tightening supply may strengthen further, creating a favorable environment for the petroleum coke market in the near term.

Overall, the June petroleum coke market is expected to continue balancing supply contraction against demand recovery. Market fundamentals are likely to remain relatively firm, with the market focus centered on the ongoing interaction between supply-side tightening and downstream demand realization.

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