【Calcined Petroleum Coke】Supply-Demand Imbalance, Market Competition to Intensify in 2025

Calcined Petroleum Coke Supply and Demand Situation

Calcined Petroleum Coke Supply and Demand Analysis

► Global Calcined Petroleum Coke Capacity

1) In 2024, global calcined petroleum coke new capacity is about 1.54 million tons, up 2.7% year-on-year;

2) In 2025, global calcined petroleum coke new capacity is expected to reach about 3.10 million tons;

3) Planned new calcined petroleum coke projects in China amount to a total capacity of 5.275 million tons;

4) In 2024, global calcined petroleum coke production is expected to increase by about 1.87 million tons, up 5% year-on-year.

► Global Aluminum Calcined Petroleum Coke Demand

In 2024, aluminum calcined petroleum coke consumption is about 30.09 million tons, an increase of 770,000 tons year-on-year.

► Global Anode Materials Calcined Petroleum Coke Demand

Consumption of calcined petroleum coke from 2023 to 2024 and demand forecast for 2025 were elaborated.

► China Graphite Electrode Calcined Petroleum Coke Demand

In 2024, China's graphite electrode calcined petroleum coke consumption is about 270,000 tons, an increase of about 3.8% year-on-year.

Summary

In 2024, global ccalcined petroleum coke supply is slightly in surplus with a low capacity utilization rate. According to relevant institutions, China's supply surplus is about 280,000 tons. Both China and overseas regions have new capacity additions, especially China. The oversupply situation may worsen in 2025.
With overseas aluminum resumption (South America and Europe) and new production capacity coming online (Southeast Asia), as well as China's aluminum output growth, global calcined petroleum coke demand will continue to increase in 2025, but the growth will be limited.
Growth in anode materials output (especially strong growth potential for energy storage anode materials) will further boost artificial graphite anode demand. In 2025, calcined petroleum coke demand for anode materials is expected to continue to increase.
In terms of graphite electrodes, as the proportion of electric furnace steelmaking increases, the share of high-power graphite electrodes (entirely using needle coke) will rise, driving up needle coke demand, but calcined petroleum coke demand may decline.

China Calcined Petroleum Coke Import and Export Situation

China Calcined Petroleum Coke Exports 

Changes in Aluminum Calcined Petroleum Coke Export Volume in 2023 & 2024

In 2024, export volume increased by about 130,000 tons compared with 2023. The increase mainly came from: Indonesia, Bahrain, Russia, and Australia.
Significant decrease: India.

China Petroleum Coke Imports

► Total petroleum coke imports: In 2024, China's petroleum coke imports were about 13.39 million tons, down 1.6% year-on-year.
• High-sulfur petroleum coke (S > 3%): about 9.53 million tons, down 20% year-on-year;
• Low-sulfur petroleum coke (S < 3%): about 3.86 million tons, down 6.4% year-on-year.

► Low-sulfur petroleum coke imports:

Brazil coke down 41% year-on-year; Argentina coke up 6.4% year-on-year; Azerbaijan coke down 69% year-on-year; Indonesia coke down 9.6% year-on-year.

Impact of U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs on Petroleum Coke Imports

From 2021 to 2024, the share of U.S. petroleum coke in China's total petroleum coke imports fell from 47% to 29%. After reciprocal tariffs take effect, U.S. import volume will decline sharply.
China's imports of U.S. petroleum coke are mainly high-sulfur sponge coke and low-, medium-, and high-sulfur shot coke, so the impact on domestic carbon-grade petroleum coke is limited.
U.S. petroleum coke has strong substitutability, such as Saudi and Venezuelan petroleum coke. In addition, fuel-grade petroleum coke competes with coal, natural gas, and heavy oil. Since the coal and other fuel markets are currently sluggish, the medium- to long-term impact on fuel-grade petroleum coke is also limited.

China Petroleum Coke Port Inventory

In 2025, port inventory is expected to fluctuate between 2.5 and 3.5 million tons.

Calcined Petroleum Coke Market Trends

China Petroleum Coke Market 2025 Outlook

The beginning of 2025 looks very similar to 2022, but history will not repeat itself.

China Calcined Petroleum Coke Market Trend

In the first quarter of 2025, a small peak will occur. The second quarter is expected to operate at a high level with fluctuations, and the third quarter may show a downward trend.

China Aluminum Calcined Petroleum Coke Export Market Trend

In the first quarter of 2025, export prices will begin to rise, peaking in March. The second quarter is expected to fluctuate and show a downward trend.

Summary

In 2025, high-sulfur coke imports may decline further, especially fuel coke, while low-sulfur coke may increase. With new overseas calcined petroleum coke capacity gradually being released (e.g., India, Oman, Brazil), demand for low-sulfur coke will increase, and China's low-sulfur coke import costs may rise.
Some of the new calcined petroleum coke projects in 2025 will be put into production, increasing supply, but downstream demand growth will be limited, particularly for anode materials. Supply-demand imbalance will be prominent. In the second half of 2025, calcined petroleum coke market competition will become more apparent. In the next 1–2 years, the entire calcined petroleum coke industry may face restructuring.

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