The rise of electric vehicles and energy storage is boosting demand for lithium batteries, increasing the need for high-quality petroleum coke and artificial graphite. Calcined petroleum coke quality directly impacts graphite performance, making it key for battery anode production.

【Monthly Review】Anode Material Operating Rate Rises Across the Board in Peak Season — "Increased Output Without Profit Growth" May Be Broken

In September, under the momentum of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, China's anode materials industry accelerated across the board, with output expected to exceed 270,000 tons, setting a new yearly high. Leading integrated enterprises were generally operating at full capacity, with orders scheduled until mid-November. The spillover demand boosted small and medium-sized enterprises' operating rates from 55% to 70%, raising the industry's average capacity utilization rate to over 75%. However, the "booming production and sales" did not bring profit improvement. Artificial graphite transaction prices have remained flat for eight consecutive weeks, while low-sulfur petroleum coke rose by 80–140 yuan/ton over the month, further compressing anode profit margins. Major battery manufacturers lowered long-term contract prices by 2,000 yuan/ton, and second- and third-tier enterprises passively accepted orders to maintain cash flow amid intense competition.

Demand Side

In September, both power and digital sectors entered their traditional peak season, while energy storage and heavy trucks continued to show strong momentum. Power batteries maintained strong demand in September and October, supported by hot-selling models from new energy vehicle startups and higher per-vehicle energy capacity. The share of energy storage batteries is expected to rise from 20% to 27%, driven by the release of large-scale domestic and international orders, with a slight increase in cell prices. Electric heavy truck sales climbed to 21,000 units in September, with per-vehicle energy capacity reaching 600–700 kWh, pushing annual anode demand toward 100,000 tons. In the digital market, flagship models from Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi boosted orders for high-end coke-based artificial graphite. Emerging applications such as eVTOLs and humanoid robots are beginning to commercialize, with multiple certified models in 2026 expected to adopt 8%+ silicon-carbon blends, potentially creating large new demand for silicon-carbon materials.

Raw Material Side

The upward trend continued, pushing anode costs higher. The average price of low-sulfur petroleum coke at the end of the month was 4,110 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan from early September, with a mild upward outlook in the short term. Needle coke (green coke) remained at 5,500–6,000 yuan/ton; with 40,000 tons of capacity restarting in Shandong and Liaoning in October, prices may decline slightly. Graphitization processing fees remained at 9,500–11,000 yuan/ton, with monthly outsourcing volumes up 15% month-on-month. The natural graphite market remained sluggish, with prices flat and August exports plummeting to just over 300 tons, as many overseas orders shifted to Indonesian plants. Mines in North America and Australia remain in financing or ramp-up phases, making it difficult to reduce short-term dependence on Chinese graphite anodes. 

Silicon-Based Anodes

Driven by digital consumption demand in September, output of CVD-type vapor-phase silicon-carbon materials continued to rise. Apple's iPhone 17 Air adopted silicon for the first time, with ATL/TDK quarterly orders reaching hundreds of tons. Xiaomi's new flagship features a 16% silicon content battery. Xpeng's flying car received 5,000 preorders, and UBTECH's humanoid robot secured another 100-million-yuan order, both specifying silicon-carbon solutions — opening new paths for high-energy-density anodes. Automotive-grade silicon-carbon anodes are advancing: U.S. Sila Nanotechnologies' Moses Lake project began production with 10,000 tons/year capacity (first phase 500 tons), supplying Mercedes-Benz initially. On the capacity front, Shangtai's 1,000-ton CVD silicon-carbon line entered mass production in September; Silicon Treasure, Do-Fluoride, Huayi Qingchuang, and Luoyang Lianchuang projects are progressing steadily, while supporting porous carbon, silane gas, and fluidized bed equipment projects are also following up.

Sodium-Ion Hard Carbon

Prices continued to decline — high-end, mid-range, and low-end products dropped to 50,000–60,000 yuan, 40,000–50,000 yuan, and 25,000–40,000 yuan/ton, respectively, down 5% month-on-month. CATL's "Sodium New" battery is expected to enter mass production for vehicles in Q1 2026, focusing on start-stop systems, small power, and pilot energy storage, with hard carbon demand likely revised upward next year. Anode-free/self-forming anode technologies are accelerating, with Panasonic planning commercialization by 2027 — expected to add 145 km to Model Y range — but facing challenges in fast charging and cycle life. Short-term substitution of conventional graphite anodes remains limited.

Policy Side

The MIIT's "2025 Standards for the Energy Storage Battery Industry" lists anode specific capacity ≥340 mAh/g and expansion rate ≤8% as entry thresholds, providing policy support for high-energy-density artificial graphite and silicon-carbon penetration. This month, China pledged at the UN Climate Change Summit to cut greenhouse gas emissions 7–10% below the peak by 2035, expand wind and solar installed capacity sixfold from 2020, and make NEVs the mainstream of new vehicle sales — all benefiting long-term anode material development.

Major Producers

BTR's Indonesia Phase II (80,000 tons) was completed; Kaijin Gutian (200,000 tons), Huiyang (20,000 tons), and Gotion Phase II (50,000 tons) projects began construction. The industry added 480,000 tons of effective new capacity this year, but overall utilization remains low, keeping overcapacity pressure. The U.S. has exempted graphite import tariffs, but China's export quotas tightened, limiting actual export growth. Internationally, ExxonMobil acquired Superior Graphite, officially entering the artificial anode market with plans to commission 12,000 tons of artificial graphite capacity by 2029. Novonix divested its natural graphite business to focus on artificial graphite plants in North America, set to supply Panasonic, Stellantis, and Volkswagen.

Q4 Outlook

Year-end production surges in power batteries, November energy storage installations, and pre-holiday restocking will drive another 8–12% month-on-month increase in anode shipments. Mid-range artificial graphite prices are expected to stay flat through December. If petroleum coke prices fall with refinery restarts in November, mainstream manufacturers may attempt a 300–500 yuan/ton price hike, though widespread increases may not occur until Q1 2026 during the Spring Festival restocking window. Gross profit per ton remains low at 1,800–2,200 yuan, with integrated producers possessing in-house graphitization facilities showing stronger resilience. SMEs remain busy but profit-thin, and industry consolidation will continue. Technologically, 314Ah large-capacity energy storage, 600+ kWh heavy trucks, and eVTOL high-silicon-carbon blends will accelerate adoption of secondary particles, high compaction, high coating, and CVD silicon-carbon processes. If petroleum coke prices rise again, profit recovery for anode producers will remain delayed, and the "increased output without profit growth" trend may persist until year-end.

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