【Steel Billet】Export "Surge": Driven by Geopolitical Factors, March Up 66% MoM

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【Steel Billet】Export "Surge": Driven by Geopolitical Factors, March Up 66% MoM

01. March Monthly Steel Billet Exports Hit a Record High for the Same Period

In Q1 2026, China's steel billet exports performed strongly, showing a continuous growth trend. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's steel billet export volume in March 2026 reached 1.53 million tons, up 66.0% month-on-month and 47.9% year-on-year, hitting a record high for the same period in recent years.

The reasons are as follows: on the one hand, after the Spring Festival, domestic construction steel demand remained lukewarm, and the traditional "March-April peak season" did not materialize significantly. Inventories in many regions remained at high levels for a long time, making billet exports an effective way to relieve domestic sales pressure. On the other hand, sudden geopolitical issues restricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, hindering steel exports from the Middle East. It is understood that in 2025, Southeast Asia imported about 2.31 million tons of steel from the Middle East, of which as much as 97% was semi-finished steel billets. Southeast Asian countries that traditionally relied on exports from Iran shifted their procurement focus toward China and India, while China's billet export prices have a stronger advantage compared to Indonesia and India.

According to customs data, China's total billet exports from January to March 2026 reached 3.30 million tons, up 28.5% year-on-year.

Figure 1. Monthly Steel Billet Exports (2023.01–2026.03)

Data Source: General Administration of Customs

02. By Product Type
Square billets remain dominant, slab exports doubled

China's billet exports are mainly standard square billets. In March, exports reached 1.19 million tons, up 43.4% month-on-month and 38.4% year-on-year, accounting for 77.8% of total billet exports. From January to March, square billet exports totaled 2.709 million tons, up 16.4% year-on-year.

In March, slab exports reached 330,000 tons, up 312.5% month-on-month and 106.3% year-on-year, accounting for 21% of total billet exports. In March, international conditions led to a sudden disruption in Iranian slab supply. It is understood that some slab orders originally scheduled for shipment to ASEAN in February were not fulfilled, creating a supply gap. Slab import quotations in ASEAN surged sharply. At the beginning of March, Indonesian steel mills raised slab prices by USD 15/ton. China's slab exports to Indonesia reached 192,000 tons in March, an increase of 182,000 tons month-on-month. From January to March, slab exports totaled 562,000 tons, up 166.9% year-on-year.

In March, slab exports reached 330,000 tons, up 312.5% month-on-month and 106.3% year-on-year, accounting for 21% of total billet exports.

Figure 2. Monthly Billet Exports by Product Type (2025.01–2026.03)

Figure 3. Export Share by Billet Type (March 2026)

Data Source: General Administration of Customs

03. By Region
Geopolitical factors drive significant growth in Middle East exports

In March, the structure of China's billet exports by destination country changed significantly, especially in the Middle East. For example, exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE totaled 366,000 tons, an increase of 359,000 tons compared to February. The increase was mainly in square billets. This was due to conflicts causing most local suppliers in Saudi Arabia to suspend quotations, tightening market supply and pushing prices higher. Meanwhile, Chinese steel mills were still able to maintain direct shipments to Jeddah Port under complex conditions. The combination of price advantages and local supply-demand gaps in Saudi Arabia drove export growth.

Exports to Southeast Asia were mainly to Indonesia, totaling 306,000 tons, with the increase mainly in slab exports to fill the supply gap in the slab market.

Due to the full implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on January 1, 2026, as the implementation process became clearer, previously delayed demand was released, combined with concerns over stricter future regulations, leading to a noticeable increase in exports to Italy in March.

Figure 4. Steel Billet Exports by Country (March 2026)

Data Source: General Administration of Customs

04. Demand Shift Driven by US-Iran Tensions
China's billet exports expected to remain strong in Q2

According to market research, under the influence of international conditions, billet orders have shifted toward China. Since March, domestic long steel order volumes have remained at high levels, and current shipment schedules for steel mills have been booked through June to August. It is expected that square billet exports may reach a new high in Q2.

In addition, slab exports have a clear price advantage. With steel mills having accepted a large number of orders earlier, shipment schedules have already been booked through June, and slab export volumes in Q2 are expected to potentially double.

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