Where is the Direction of Petroleum Coke in the supply and demand game?

2022 is coming to an end. Although petroleum coke market is affected by various uncontrollable factors such as epidemic situation, the supply and demand game is still in progress, and the price affected by the game is particularly worrying.  

Looking at the operating rate of delayed coking units throughout the year, it is a process of first decreasing and then increasing, which is particularly evident in the operating rate of main coking units. The main coking unit in the first half of the year centralized maintenance, petroleum coke shipments average; Although the maintenance of the local coking unit was not centralized, mostly in the first half of the year. Data shows that the output of petroleum coke in the second half of the year has far exceeded that in the first half of the year, especially in October; The survey shows that most refineries have no maintenance plan, and the production of petroleum coke is expected to remain high from November to December.

From the perspective of imports, 2022 is far more than 2021, especially in the second half of the year, imports increased significantly. By the end of September, the import volume had reached 10.6 million tons, up 6.6% year on year. About 1.5 million tons were imported in October, and annual imports are expected to hit an all-time high of 14 million tons or more. On the export side, it is still a small and low level, which has little impact on the overall supply pattern. In addition, petroleum coke inventories continue to be high, as of the end of October 2022, petroleum coke port inventory has reached 2.305 million tons. A large amount of imported petroleum coke has arrived in the domestic market, the outbreak of epidemic in many regions has affected the transportation, port evacuation speed has slowed down, market trading is slightly weak, and the port inventory continues to run at a high level. From output to import, the following petroleum coke market is well supplied.

In the first half of the year, due to the influence of epidemic and equipment maintenance, the output declined; In addition, the demand of aluminum carbon enterprises is strong, petroleum coke price rises sharply. Since the second half of the year, the supply has been sufficient, but the price has remained high, volatile and stable. It can be seen that demand side support is strong. In 2022, consumption of petroleum coke will increase overall compared to previous years, and the demand in downstream areas will increase significantly, especially in the pre-baked anode and anode materials field. As a pre-baked anode in the main downstream consumption field, the export volume has increased significantly in recent years, and the demand for petroleum coke has always increased. Supported by national policies, the anode materials field is gaining momentum, which also provides strong support for petroleum coke.

Generally speaking, the market supply and demand game continues, and the delayed coking unit of the refinery was basically stable; The epidemic has been effectively controlled, and downstream enterprises are actively purchasing and replenishing inventories, which is a good support for enterprises with high inventory pressure. With the consumption of inventory and strong support in the demand field, petroleum coke market is expected to have a large fluctuation space. More petroleum coke market news for reference.