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Actual situation of graphitization in Inner Mongolia II

Actual situation of graphitization in Inner Mongolia II

Actual situation of graphitization in Inner Mongolia

------- investment opportunities brought by the shortage of graphitization of negative electrode II


Q: Which companies have capacity in this circle??

A: Kaijin, Jimei, Mengji and Ruisheng are all inside. Shanshan is not inside. The high quality graphite electrodes are provided. 


Q: Since tens of thousands of tons may be affected within 500 kilometers of Beijing, what is the total capacity of these companies?

A: Almost 100,000 tons. The production capacity in the circle is relatively high. Kaijin 30000 tons, accounting for 1/3, Ruisheng 60 million tons, nearly 150,000 tons. Kaijin and Ruisheng are big factories. It will also be greatly affected: after April and may every year (after the two sessions), sometimes it will continue to June. Power limit and environmental protection inspectors (lasting for one month), many factories are semi shut down.  


Q: Nearly 100,000 tons of production capacity will be affected within 500 kilometers of Beijing, and 30,000 tons of non integrated production capacity will be affected. Generally speaking, more than 130,000 tons of graphitization may be affected in the fourth quarter or next year?

A: Yes, the graphitization expansion in Inner Mongolia has basically stopped, and there is no EIA and energy assessment. With the increase of environmental protection pressure, it is impossible to invest a lot in tail gas treatment. The whole graphitization expansion has shifted to Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan, and there will be basically no new capacity in Inner Mongolia in the next few years.


Q: For the existing projects that have not been completed, for example, the evaluation index has been obtained. Can they continue to expand?

A: Yes. Pu Tailai's Xingfeng factory in Inner Mongolia has been approved at one time, but the production capacity is gradually increasing, doubling this year and next. Its second phase can be produced normally and submitted for approval at one time. The graphite chemical plant of Shanshan (Baotou phase II) has been obtained and there is no problem.


Q: What are the differences in power rationing among regions in Inner Mongolia?

A: The focus is on Ulan Qab. There are many graphite chemical plants in Ulan Qab. The local government is also under great pressure from the autonomous region. In addition, it is close to Beijing and Hebei, pressure is a little bit bigger. It'll be better as long as it's not in Ulan Qab. Only Shanshan is not in Ulan Qab.


Q: There is no new energy consumption index in Inner Mongolia. Is there any way to get the index?

A: Turn the graphite chemical plant into a factory that can produce negative electrodes (integration), and graphitization is one of the processes.  


Q: The current graphitization price and the trend in the next two years?

A: In the next two years, it is likely to break through the historical high, maybe over 2.5, now it is about 20000, but it has not completely broken through 20000. There is a great correlation between graphitization price and varieties. There will still be 10,000 yuan per ton, but some different varieties will also be very expensive, up to 20,000 to 30,000 yuan. The average price should be about 18,000 now and will exceed 25,000  in the future (up 20-30%).


Q: How long will the new graphitization order be delivered?

A: We can't add any more this year. The desired graphitized capacity of the negative factory has been divided up, and there is still some graphitized capacity. Due to poor quality, the negative factory does not dare to order from them. The capacity of the mature graphite chemical plant is fully contracted by the negative electrode enterprise.


Q: How is the total capacity of graphitization in Inner Mongolia? (including graphitization owned by large factories)

A: More than 500,000 tons, more than 300,000 tons can be produced, more than 100,000 tons are affected, and the order of 300,000 tons has been completely locked.  If they raise their prices (pay first), negative electrode enterprises can squeeze in new graphitization orders, thus rapidly pushing up the price of graphitization. The fourth quarter is the peak of the traditional negative electrode (starting from the National Day). The current price rise has just begun, and it is difficult to predict how much it will rise in the future. 25,000 is a relatively conservative prediction, depending on the increase of orders placed by the battery factory to the negative electrode factory.  


Q: What is the cost of graphitization now compared with before? The current cost structure?

A: The cost of graphitization is falling all the time. Divide the negative electrode into three categories to see its cost:

1. For products with high energy, high density and high cycle (the highest requirements), the graphitization cost is about 12,000 degrees to 15,000 degrees. Crucible furnace, namely Achison furnace, must be used. The graphitization cost per ton is no more than 15,000, and the good graphitization cost is 12,000 tons.  

2. Regular power battery (the largest type in the market) has a cost unit price of 10,000 to 13,000 yuan, half of which can be completed by box-type furnace, and the other half must be completed by Acheson furnace.

3. Low end: energy storage or relatively low-end power requirements are completed by box-type furnace. The graphitization cost of box-type furnace varies with the factory: 6500~9000 per ton. The average of all of them is not more than 12,000 (10,000-12,000). Costs are falling, and all factories are increasing furnace loading. Half of the graphitization cost is electricity, one third is crucible, and the rest is manual depreciation (relatively fixed). Compared with two years ago, the loading capacity of each crucible was increased by one third, and the service life was increased. It can be used for 6 to 7 times from the original 3 or 4 times. The cost of crucible graphitization decreased from about 5,000 to about 3,000.  


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Q: For example, when the price rises to 25,000, the graphitization segment can earn 13,000 per ton?


A: 10,000 is guaranteed. The cost has little to do with the selling price, and the cost is stable. The more intense graphitization is, the more profitable the graphite chemical plant is. It can choose orders.  By selecting the same product sequence, so that it qualification rate will become higher and the whole turnover will become faster. It will choose those high-end products that are easy to graphitize. Assuming that the price remains unchanged, the profit of graphitization will also increase. The profits of the main graphite chemical plants will increase rapidly. The profit margin of graphitization of crucible will be larger, because it makes relatively more high-end products.


Q: Graphitization is really very intense these days. Are there any ways to shorten the production cycle?


A: Change the transformer and loading. The graphitization process needs to reach a certain temperature. Now each plant has begun to begun to do this improvement, because the technology spread very quickly, by changing the transformer, the original transformer is 15,000 kW, and now the large transformer has reached 28,000 kW. The faster the power supply, the faster the temperature rise, and the better the quality. Now, each plant is replacing the transformer, so that the processing time (some small furnaces) is reduced from 45-60 hours to 35-40 hours, and the production capacity is virtually increased by 15-20%. The individual loading capacity is also increasing to a level of more than 10% to 20%. Similarly, the original annual output, for example, a factory with a monthly output of 800 to 1000 tons, will become 1,200 to 1,500 tons a month.


Q: Is this technological progress (switching process) fast or slow?


A: This process is not particularly long. In the past, when the graphitization price was relatively low, such as 13,000-15,000 yuan, or even the lowest, the box-type furnace reached 8,000-9,000 yuan. Graphite chemical plant will not update its own equipment and buy large crucibles. After the price is pushed up, the crucible replacement speed is very fast. The original main crucible model is 508 or 510 in diameter. Now various manufacturers have begun to upgrade it to 690 and 900. The crucible size of the main plant has been upgraded from 508 to 900, Then the charging amount can be increased by about 23~25%, and it can also reduce the labor intensity. In the original to load a large furnace, we need to hold 880 crucibles, which directly reduces to more than 500 crucibles. The charging and discharging speed can also reduce the time of almost two days and increase the production capacity. According to statistics, for example, we use stoves to calculate. If a graphitization production line has 8 stoves and the single charging capacity of the furnace is 50 tons, the normal output of a month is 400 tons, because each furnace can be made into one and a half stoves, and if each furnace is made fast, one and a half stoves. Now in a month, the speed of the fastest circulating single furnace can reach 14 to 15 days, that is, twice a month. Then the original 10,000 ton factory is likely to become 15,000 tons.


Q: In the current situation of tight graphitization, the overall amount of graphitization capacity released by the graphitization capacity that is not affected by power restriction may be higher than before. Is that so understood?

A: The premise is that they have enough capital investment, because crucibles are not cheap. One is more than 2000 yuan, and now it is slowly rising. As long as they buy crucibles and can afford transformers, it can quickly increase its output by almost 35~50%, at least 40% on average , to view more related news from us.


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