Calcined petroleum coke, with its high carbon content, low sulfur, and low impurities, plays a vital role in modern manufacturing, especially in the aluminum and steel industries.

【Petroleum Coke】Price Gains at the Beginning of August Driven by Supply and Demand

Since late July, the domestic petroleum coke market has experienced another round of price increases. After the rise, prices have remained firm, and the market has continued on an upward trajectory into August. Downstream markets are actively stocking, and an increased purchasing willingness from anode manufacturers is supporting demand, which in turn is pushing up market prices.

I. Domestic Supply Tightens, Petroleum Coke Prices Push Up at the Beginning of August

According to market sources, domestic petroleum coke prices continued to rise in early August. As of August 5, 1# coke was priced at 3,918 CNY/ton, up 213 CNY/ton week-on-week, a 5.75% increase; 2A coke was 3,687 CNY/ton, up 184 CNY/ton, a 5.26% increase; 3B coke was 3,026 CNY/ton, up 80 CNY/ton, a 2.73% increase; and 4A coke was 2,071 CNY/ton, up 53 CNY/ton, a 2.63% increase.

Table 1: Weekly Domestic Petroleum Coke Refinery Production Comparison (10,000 tons)

From the domestic refinery supply perspective, weekly production has decreased. As of July 31, weekly petroleum coke production was 529,500 tons, down 1.38% week-on-week, but up 4.83% compared with the same period in June. Supported by active downstream restocking, market sentiment has improved, refineries are actively signing new orders, and with continuous domestic supply reductions, finished product inventories have been effectively drawn down. Petroleum coke prices are therefore running firm and stable.

II. Mixed Inventory Performance, Active Terminal Purchasing

Downstream bullish sentiment combined with moderately active terminal restocking, alongside reduced refinery output, has led to a decline in refinery sample inventories. As of July 31, domestic refinery inventories stood at approximately 118,100 tons, down 6,200 tons week-on-week, a 4.99% decrease. Driven by low-sulfur coke prices, domestic medium- and high-sulfur coke prices have mostly remained stable. The speed of refinery shipments has increased, and refinery sample inventories are expected to have further room to decline.

New arrivals of imported coke increased port inventories at the end of July. As of July 31, total petroleum coke inventories at major Chinese ports reached 4.498 million tons, up 45,000 tons week-on-week, a 1.01% increase. This week's arrivals mainly include petroleum coke from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Recently arrived imported coke has basically been warehoused. In August, imports of petroleum coke are expected to decline. At the beginning of the month, active downstream purchasing sentiment and the upward trend of domestic prices are expected to support imported coke sales. Port clearance of spot cargoes may accelerate, and it is expected that incoming port inventories will still be less than outgoing volumes. Port spot inventories are expected to decline to around 4.4 million tons.

III. Supply and Demand Influence: Petroleum Coke Market Still Has Upside Potential in August

Results from the August market sentiment survey of domestic petroleum coke participants indicate that 45% expect prices to rise steadily, 32% expect a sideways market, and 23% expect a decline. Overall, bullish sentiment dominates. The main reasons are reduced low-sulfur coke supply in August, and most local refinery petroleum coke grades are high in sulfur, causing an imbalance in the structure of petroleum coke specifications. The new round of prebaked anode pricing is higher than market expectations. Carbon enterprises are maintaining stable procurement, and anode orders are increasing. Active restocking of raw material inventories is supportive of petroleum coke market sales, with prices expected to have upside potential.

Therefore, influenced by supply and demand, the average market price of low-sulfur coke in August is expected to be 3,800–4,500 CNY/ton, medium-sulfur coke prices 2,800–4,000 CNY/ton, and high-sulfur coke prices are expected to adjust sideways at around 1,350–2,100 CNY/ton.

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