【Graphitized Recarburizer Market Analysis】Strong Cost Support, Cautious Downstream...

【Graphitized Recarburizer Market Analysis】Strong Cost Support, Cautious Downstream Sentiment Limits Price Upside

Survey data show that for graphitized recarburizer jumbo bag products with specifications of Fixed Carbon ≥98.5%, Sulfur ≤0.05%, particle size 1–5 mm, the tax-inclusive price range is RMB 3,850–3,950/ton in North China, while East China prices are RMB 3,800–3,900/ton.

I. Rising Raw Material Costs Build a Solid Price Support Base

The core support for current graphitized recarburizer prices comes from the continued rise in upstream raw material costs. As the primary raw material, petroleum coke—especially low-sulfur petroleum coke—remains firm in market expectations. In 2026, domestic petroleum coke output is expected to increase in tandem with downstream demand from lithium battery anode materials and carbon industries. Meanwhile, incremental imports of medium- and low-sulfur grades remain limited, resulting in a supply–demand mismatch that drives prices into a fluctuating upward trend.

The increase in raw material prices has been directly transmitted to the midstream processing segment. Graphitized recarburizer producers are facing significantly higher cost pressure, and in order to maintain reasonable profit margins, producers show strong willingness to raise prices. This has become the key reason why market prices remain difficult to decline in the short term.

II. Stable but Pressured Downstream Demand, Cautious Sentiment Dominates Trading

Downstream demand from the steel and foundry sectors remains generally stable; however, cautious sentiment is widespread, becoming a key factor limiting further price increases. As the core consumption sector for recarburizers, the steel industry continues to face weak end-user demand. Compressed steel mill margins and production control measures have led mills to focus mainly on rigid demand procurement, with strong price negotiation pressure and limited acceptance of higher recarburizer prices.

Although the foundry sector benefits from structural demand growth driven by automotive lightweighting and high-end equipment manufacturing, overall market sentiment remains prudent. End users primarily replenish inventories on a low-level, on-demand basis, with limited willingness to build stocks proactively.

III. Intensifying Market Game, Short-Term Outlook Remains Range-Bound

From a comprehensive supply–demand perspective, the graphitized recarburizer market is currently in a game between cost support and demand constraints, and prices are likely to maintain a narrow-range fluctuation in the short term. On the cost side, expectations of strong petroleum coke prices persist, providing ongoing support for recarburizer prices. On the demand side, under policies of precise control over steel capacity and output, steel production may decline slightly, and the broader weak demand landscape is unlikely to change fundamentally in the near term. As a result, cautious market sentiment is expected to persist.

Looking ahead, close attention should be paid to petroleum coke price movements, changes in steel mill operating rates, and the impact of environmental policies on capacity utilization, as these factors will play a decisive role in shaping marginal changes in the supply–demand balance.

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