【Graphite Electrode】May Market Analysis and Outlook

【Graphite Electrode】May Market Analysis and Outlook

In April, China's graphite electrode market as a whole showed a "stable but strengthening, specification-differentiated" trend. Prices of small-size electrodes remained firm due to tight supply, while large-size electrodes fluctuated within a narrow range because of sufficient inventories. Cost-side support remained the core logic, but export restrictions and different downstream demand release rhythms led to obvious differences in price trends among various specifications.

Price Review

Entering April, the price center of graphite electrodes continued to move upward, but trends among different specifications showed clear divergence. As of April 30, taking the Jiangsu market as an example, the monthly average price of φ450 ultra-high-power electrodes was 15,914 RMB/ton, up 514 RMB/ton from the March average price of 15,400 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.34%. The April average price of φ500 ultra-high-power graphite electrodes was 16,314 RMB/ton, up 482 RMB/ton from the March average price of 15,832 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.04%. The April average price of φ600 ultra-high-power graphite electrodes was 17,214 RMB/ton, up 446 RMB/ton from the March average price of 16,768 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.66%. It can be seen that the price increase of large-size graphite electrodes was smaller than that of small-size electrodes.

Export Risks Remain, Domestic Demand Shows Strong Resilience

1) Geopolitical Conflicts Still Have an Impact

From the export perspective, China's graphite electrode export volume in March 2026 was 23,800 tons. In terms of monthly changes, March exports increased by 8.07% month-on-month, ending the "dormant period" caused by the Spring Festival holiday in February, and export activities recovered to some extent. However, exports declined by 33.36% year-on-year. Compared with 2025, the decline was significant.

From the quarterly data, China's total graphite electrode exports from January to March 2026 reached 77,400 tons, down 9.62% year-on-year. Affected by geopolitical conflicts and other factors, exports to the Middle East market, which had previously grown rapidly, were significantly hindered in March. At the same time, transportation costs and risks, anti-dumping measures, and other combined factors caused overall export performance in the first quarter to be significantly weaker than the same period last year. Export pressure shifted to the domestic market, intensifying domestic competition.

2) Domestic Demand Shows Strong Resilience

From the domestic demand perspective, according to a survey of 94 electric arc furnace plants in China, both the average operating rate and capacity utilization rate in April showed a fluctuating upward trend. Among them, the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.72% compared with the beginning of the month, while the average operating rate increased by 1.83%. Electric furnace enterprises maintained relatively good production enthusiasm, and steel mills increased production cautiously as profits gradually recovered.

From the profit perspective, the average profit and off-peak electricity profit of independent electric furnace mills in China both expanded, helping to boost steel mills' production enthusiasm. However, constrained by the narrow profit margins of finished steel products and the relatively high current operating and capacity utilization rates of electric furnaces, there is support for increased production and operating rates, but no explosive growth is expected. Therefore, demand for graphite electrodes is expected to increase moderately and slightly.

Cost Support Remains the Core Driving Force Behind Graphite Electrode Price Increases

The impact of geopolitical factors is multifaceted. Therefore, for graphite electrode manufacturers, this conflict has not only caused the price increase of a single raw material, but also driven the overall rise of the entire cost system. International oil prices have been pushed higher, directly increasing the costs of petroleum coke, needle coke, and ocean freight. At the same time, concerns about supply chain security have indirectly supported the prices of coal tar pitch, domestic coking coal, and other substitute or related resources.

In May, the supply of low-sulfur coke raw materials remains limited, while demand from anode materials (power batteries and energy storage) and carbon products for aluminum smelting continues to stay strong. The mismatch between supply and demand strongly supports petroleum coke prices, making them more likely to rise than fall.

May Market Outlook

Based on the current market dynamics and cost-side performance, China's graphite electrode market is expected to maintain a "high-level operation, easier to rise than fall" pattern in May 2026. Specifically, the structural shortage of upstream raw materials, especially low-sulfur petroleum coke, will continue to provide solid cost support for electrode prices. In addition, several electrode enterprises have recently raised their quotations, indicating that cost transmission is taking effect. However, considering the limited recovery in steel mill profits and the relatively sufficient inventory of large-size electrodes, downstream acceptance of high prices may become differentiated.

(Source: Mysteel)

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